YES, IT IS A THREAT

Date: Monday, February 8, 2011, 2:52 PM


MANUEL CEREIJO


Although Cuba ’s regime does not receive much attention as a national security threat, it is a real threat, a danger, to the United States and the free nations of Latin America . The Ana Belen Montes case, the Red Avispa, and other recent spying cases should remind us that Cuba is a real threat. Cuba has significant intelligence capabilities that inherited from the former Soviet Union and East Germany and it is the country with more spies caught in the United States in the last 40 years. The DGI, Cuba ’s intelligence service is among the best five in the world.



Below you will find a brief analysis in the areas where Cuba is a real threat against the United States . In each one of the areas the reader can find complete details in my previous reports.



1. Cuba capable of waging a bio-war



The Beginning



In 1980, Castro heard about experimental work with interferons (IFNs) for the treatment of cancer from a meeting with Lee Clark, then president of M.D. Anderson Hospital in Houston, Texas. Almost immediately thereafter, he made the decision to study IFNs, and invest heavily in the “new biotechnology, forming the Biological Front in 1981—a high-level policy-making body to speed the investment process.



In January 1982, after a group of Cuban scientists led by Manuel Limonta trained at Lee’s cancer

hospital and at the Helsinki laboratory of Kari Cantell, the CIB was founded for the production and cloning of IFNs and for research in molecular biology and biotechnology in general. Although IFNs turned out not to be the “magic bullets” predicted at the time, they served as a model for the development of molecular biology and biotechnology on the island



The inauguration of the CIGB in 1986 marked the beginning of the maturation of biotechnology in Cuba. An investment of approximately US $150 million was used to fully equip modern research in areas covering pharmaceuticals and immunodiagnostics, vaccines, animal, plant, and industrial biotechnology.



Ten years later, the center had over 1,100 “employees” with more than 200 scientists in R&D

working on a pipeline of 112 products. The impressive results of some projects gave

impulse to the creation of other research and production facilities, with a total investment of more

than US $1.5 billions.







Main Centers



Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (CIGB)



It was established in La Habana, in 1986, at a cost of $150 million dollars. Located west of La Habana, 31 Ave, between 158 and 190 Streets, Cubanacan.



It has a total area of 60,000 square meters. The Center has state-of-the-art equipment, second only to the United States in the Americas.



Natural Bio-Preparations Center (Biocen)



Biocen, located in Bejucal, south of Habana province, at Carretera de Beltran km 1 ½, is engaged in industrial scale production of human vaccines.It was created in 1992, at a cost of $15 million dollars.



Biocen's culture media plant has an annual 40 tons capacity in medicines, vaccines, etc. Culture media is a liquid or gel designed to support the growth of microorganisms or cells.







The Finlay Institute



The Carlos J. Finlay Medical Research Institute is located in Ave. 27, No. 19805, La Lisa, Habana. The Institute occupies an area of 23,000 square meters, divided into three areas: fermentation, purification, and "clean rooms". Over 600 engineers and scientists work at the Institute.



The Institute of Tropical Medicine



The Institute was founded in 1937. The center's research area is in microbiology. Modernized and relocated in 1994. The Institute has the necessary state-of the-art equipment for research related to tropical bacteria and viruses. The Institute is probably the best in the world in research and development related to tropical diseases.





Center for Molecular immunology (CIM)



It is a 15,000 square meter, two floor facility, built at a cost of $20 million dollars. Over 200 scientists and engineers work at the Center.



There are over 160 centers across the Island.



Cuba has a bilateral agreement with Iran on biotechnology. Since 1998 to May 2001, Cuba built and equipped Iran ’s major Biotechnology Center , inaugurated by Castro on May 2001. Cost for Iran : $550 million dollars. It has culminated in Iran buying outright the prized fruits of the CIGB, namely recombinant protein production technologies in yeast and Escherichia coli, as well as the large scale purification protocols for both soluble and insoluble proteins synthesized in or excreted by them.



On September, 2009, Cuba and China renewed their 2004 agreement on Biotechnology Cooperation for 5 years The World Health Organization has classified countries, depending on their biological industry development in 5 categories. Cuba has been classified in # 4. Only the G7 countries are on #5.



Some analysts maintain that evidence of large biological research is not proof that viable bioweapons are being produced, true. However, even the most primitive biological weapons lab can produce enough of an agent to cripple a major city. Certainly, Cuba's facilities are recognized as outstanding. Countries with the capacity and technology to produce sophisticated vaccines can certainly produce bio-weapons. However, ordinary intelligence and surveillance techniques cannot prove the existence of a biological warfare program.



Even the highest resolution satellite imagery can't distinguish between a large pharmaceutical plant or center and a weapons complex. The only conclusive evidence comes from first hand information, or a site inspection.



2. Cuba: The Threat



Cuba is not a challenge or a threat to the United States with conventional weapons on a conventional battlefield. It never was, not even at its military peak of the 1970's. However, Cuba is a real threat to the United States with non-traditional weapons.





Background



Cuba has surprising talent and experience in the areas of electronics, computers, computer software and data processing. The country benefited from its association with the former Soviet Union, and some European countries, which turned out many skilled electrical and computer engineers, as well as technicians.



The Beginning



Prior to the August 1991 coup attempt, the KGB was developing computer viruses with the intent of using them to disrupt computer systems in times of war or crisis. In early 1991, a highly restricted project was undertaken by a group within the Military Intelligence Directorate of Cuba's Ministry of the Armed Forces.



The group was instructed to obtain information to develop a computer virus to infect U.S. civilian computers. The group spent about $5,000 dollars to buy open-source data on computer networks, computer viruses, SATCOM, and related communications technology. These efforts have continued to be made, now in a much larger scale, and could potentially cause irreparable harm to U.S. defense system.



The project is under the direction of Major Guillermo Bello, and his wife, Colonel Sara Maria Jordan, both of the Ministry of the Interior. Several well- known Cuban engineers were sent to work in this group. The engineering effort is led by engineers Sergio Suarez, Amado Garcia, and Jose Luis Presmanes. Several computational centers have been created at either universities or research centers through Cuba, where highly secret research and development activities are conducted. The developments of malicious software requires little in the way of resources- a few computers and an individual or group with the appropriate expertise-making a malicious software R&D program easy to support as well as to hide.



According to reports, Dutch teenagers gained access, apparently through an Internet connection to computer systems at 34 DOD sites, including the Air Force Weapons Laboratory, the David Taylor Research Center, the Army Information Systems Command, and the Navy Ocean Systems Center during operations Desert Shield Storm.



They were snooping in sensitive rather than classified military information. The intrusions normally involved broad-base keywords searches including such words as "rockets", "missiles", and "weapons".



They exploited a trap door to permit future access and modified and copied military information to unauthorized accounts on U.S. university systems. Although no "customer" was identified, the data collected could have been sent electronically anywhere in the world. At that time, some Cuban engineers were receiving specialized training in Holland, Sweden, and Austria.



In 1995, Russia started the construction of an espionage base to be operated by the Cubans. The base is located at Bejucal, south of La Habana. The agreement, and the supervision of the entire project, was directed by General Guillermo Rodriguez del Pozo. Equipment for the base was shipped secretively from Russia through the port of Riga, in Latvia. This country does not have an embassy in Cuba. However, Cuba maintains a large embassy, over 50 persons, in Latvia.



The base is now fully operational, similar but smaller than Lourdes, and with all state-of-the-art equipment. The unit is referred to by some as The Electronic Warfare Battalion, EWB. The request for the base came because Cuba does not have access to Lourdes. They only get copies of the Russian intelligence summaries on issues that could affect the nation's security.



Cuba Bejucal's Base is very powerful, and it has the capabilities, besides running signals intelligence operations, that is, eavesdropping, of conducting cyberwarfare. The Interior Ministry's General Directorate for Intelligence is in charge of the Base.



During the last few weeks there have been thousands of cyber attacks to computer and computer networks in the United States-government and private entities. The United States , due to its dependence on computers, is very vulnerable to such attacks. A cyber attack on the United States could be more devastating economically than a nuclear bomb and could cause massive deaths as well. It could crush our country and the world economy, which depends upon the United States as the world’s leading economy. If they take us down, they cripple everybody.



In a partially declassified CIA document , it is written how Cuba started in 1991 the study of how to interfere in computer networks. This initial project had a modest budget of $50,000 US dollars.



The Soviet Union maintained in Cuba the Lourdes electronic espionage base, to which Cuba did not have direct access. On 1994, Cuba and Russia agreed the construction of a similar base for Cuba . It was built in Bejucal, south of La Habana, and became operational on December 1997, at a cost of $750 million US dollars. It is known as the Bejucal Base. It is to note the importance of cybernetics for Cuba , going in only 6 years from a $50,000 budget to $750 million. Lourdes was dismantled in 2002.



This base has the capacity of listening to telecommunications in the United States, as well as to interfere in computer networks, read/change electronic files, and more important, to change output commands of computers use to control infrastructure facilities.



On 1999, the PRC and Cuba signed an agreement that allows Chinese personnel to collaborate in the Bejucal base, as well as in several other facilities that Cuba has. This agreement gave place to what is called Operation Titan. Since 2002, Cuba uses PRC’s satellites in the operation of the Bejucal base.



Since 2003, the Cuban government has emphasized the training of talented young Cuban engineers in computation and cybernetics, and selected ones have been placed in key positions in all cyber facilities in Cuba . The government of Cuba has declared publicly that computers have replaced canons in the modern asymmetric war.



Below, we will briefly described the main cyber installations in Cuba .



Bejucal base, Habana Province . 20 square miles area. Cost $750 million dollars. 1,100 engineers, technicians and staff work here. It has three satellite/antennas groups. Capabilities of voice recognition. Computer networks can be interfere from the Base, as well as satellite telecommunications.
Research and development of asymmetric electronic weapons. Two HPCs or high Speed and operation computers.DGI is in charge of the Base.



The electronic complex, located in Vedado, La Habana, in Paseo Street , between 11 and 13 Streets. Cost $75 million dollars. In here is located the offices of the Electronic Warfare Batallion. Main task: interfereing telecommunications.
The Cojimar electronic complex, east of La Habana. Cost $40 million dollars.
The Wajay farm, near Bejucal.Also known as the Antenna farm. Hundreds of especial antennas are located here. Cost $15 million dollars.
The antenna farm of Santiago de Cuba , eastern part of Cuba . Similar to the one in Wajay. Cost $15 million dollars.
Establishment in 2003 of the University of Informative Sciences , UCI , in the place where the Russian Lourdes base had been. It has an enrollment of 10,000 selected students in a five year program.


During the Summer of 2004, Cuba interfered satellite communications from the United States to the people of Iran . This was done from the Bejucal base. This operation confirms the high technology of Cuba as well as the close ties with Iran . Cuba is the only country classified as terrorist nation, which has such high cyber infrastructure.





3. Cuba’s Elite Military Group: Special Troops


What are Cuba ’s elite forces? Who commands them? Who trains them? Where is their training camp? What are the main missions they are prepared for? Since mid 1980s, Cuba established in Los Palacios, Pinar del Río, in a region known as El Cacho, a special troop military training school.



Named Baraguá School , it is situated in a big valley, near the mountains of Pinar del Río. It is a very large training camp, with artificial lakes, and the most modern training technology. The School is exactly located where the first missiles were seen during the 1962 missile crisis. The De la Guardia brothers founded the School. It was under General José Luis Mesa, very close to Raúl Castro. General Mesa, 50, speaks fluent English, and is well mannered. He was a veteran of Vietnam , as a young officer, and also of the African wars. He retired due to health problems. The daily operations are under Colonel Ramírez, Veteran of Angola, Vietnam , and other war places. Colonel Ramírez is an expert on this kind of special troop training. Presently they have assistant from special personnel from China and Vietnam . The special troop school has about a constant flow of 2500 to 3000 men in training.



Ranging from 18 to 35 years old, they are a breed apart -a cut above the rest. Unquestionable, they are one of the world’s finest unconventional warfare experts. Certainly, second only to the United States Special Troops in this Hemisphere. They are kept on an uncommon physical and mental caliber. Mature, highly skilled, and superbly trained. They are always ready to serve anywhere, at any time: Infiltrations, commando operations, biowarfare, cyber warfare, and espionage. Special troops are trained to deliver people, equipment, and weapons with surgical precision. They locate high-value, strategic, movable targets and they deliver firepower more accurately. They are trained to operate in small independent units.



They have advanced personal camouflage with enhanced protection against harsh environments and climatic conditions. Clothing will offer them individual body armor and safeguards against biological and chemical agents. They have helmets fitted with enhanced sensory head-up displays including thermal, image-intensified, and acoustic sensors. External and imbedded optics enable them to see long distances clearly without using handheld optical systems.



They have external skeletal systems that will improve individual skills, enabling special operators to move faster, jump farther, and lift more weight. Such enhanced physical attributes allow them to deliver more deadly force with greater accuracy and penetrating power. They also have miniaturized command, control, and communication functions, as well as embedded artificial intelligence for situational decision-making. In Baraguá School, Special troops are trained to perform the following missions: · Unconventional Warfare, UW: A broad spectrum of military operations conducted in politically sensitive territory or “enemy” held territory.



Including interrelated fields of guerrilla warfare, evasion and escape, subversion, sabotage. · Direct Action, DA: Either overt or cover action against an “enemy” force. Seize, damage, and destroy a target. Short duration, small scale offensive actions. Ambushes, direct assault tactics, emplace mines. · Special Reconnaissance, SR: Infiltration behind “enemy” lines. Collect meteorological, hydrographic, geographic, and demographic data. · Psychological Operations, PSYOP: Induce or reinforce foreign attitudes and behavior favorable to Cuba objectives.



Influence emotions, motives, and behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals. They also receive additional training and skills in freefall parachuting, underwater operations, target interdiction strategic reconnaissance, and operations and intelligence. Obviously, this group is strictly an offensive military group. Cuba is an island, and therefore has not borders to defend from neighboring countries. The most serious threats from the Special troops are: biowarfare operations, cyber warfare operations, infiltrations, commando attacks, kidnapping, espionage.



4. CUBA’S ADVERSARY FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE





When the Cold war ended, it was widely believed that a new era of international cooperation had begun. However, simply put, the end of the cold war has not led to a more peaceful world.



The United States is the target of those who challenge the status quo, and one of those is Cuba . Furthermore, the PRC has joined efforts with Cuba in a new axis. The deterioration in China ’s relations with the United States is also being accompanied by a warmer relationship with Russia . There are three nations that use intensively their intelligence services to harm the interests of the United States . These nations are: China , Cuba , and North Korea . These nations continue to expend significant resources to conduct intelligence operations against the United States .



These efforts are centered on producing intelligence concerning the United States military capabilities, other national security activities, and military research and development activities. They have now expanded their collection efforts to place additional emphasis on collecting scientific, technical, economic, and proprietary information. These collection efforts are designed to provide technologies required for the acquisition and maintenance of advanced military systems, as well as to promote the national welfare of these nations. Each one of these countries has the ability to collect intelligence on targeted U.S. activities using HUMINT, SIGINT, and the analysis of open source material. Also, Cuba , China , and Russia have access to imagery products that can be used to produce IMINT. The United States is now the target of those who want to challenge the existing state of affairs. Security threats, in this new era of asymmetric warfare, will inevitable emerge more and more frequently.



The PRC has obtained the HPCs from the United States . The contribution of HPCs to military modernization is also dependent on related technologies such as Telecommunications, Microelectronics, and Computer Networking, areas in which the PRC has been assisting Cuba intensively since 1998. The principal intelligence collection arms of the Cuban government are the Directorate General of Intelligence (DGI) of Ministry of Interior, and the Military Counterintelligence Department of the Ministry of the Armed Forces. The DGI is responsible for foreign intelligence collection.



The DGI has six divisions divided into two categories of roughly equal size: The Operational Divisions and the Support Divisions.



The operational divisions include the Political/Economic Intelligence Divisions, the External Counterintelligence Division, and the Military Intelligence Division.



The support divisions include the Technical Support Division, the Information Division, and the Preparation Division. The Technical Support Division is responsible for production of false documents, communication systems supporting clandestine operations, and development of clandestine message capabilities. The Information and Preparation Divisions are responsible for intelligence analysis functions.



The Political Economic Intelligence Division consists of four sections: Eastern Europe, North America, Western Europe, and Africa-Asia-Latin-America. The External Counterintelligence Division is responsible for penetrating foreign intelligence services and the surveillance of exiles. The Military Intelligence Department was focused on collecting information on the U.S. Armed Forces and coordinated SIGINT operations with the Russians at Lourdes. Presently, it controls the Bejucal base.



The Military Counterintelligence Department is responsible for conducting counterintelligence, SIGINT, and electronic warfare activities against the United States.



The full range of Cuba’s espionage activities are a very serious matter of concern. Despite the economic failure of the Castro regime, Cuban intelligence, in particular the DGI, remains a viable threat to the United States. The Cuban mission to the United States is the third largest UN delegation. The Cuban diplomats conduct and support harmful activities in the United States. The United States’ intelligence agencies should devote their resources to the most serious security threats, principally international terrorism, and adverse political trends.



5. RADIOLOGICAL BOMBS:DIRTY BOMBS




Makings of a dirty bomb



Hundreds of small radioactive power generators are scattered across the former Soviet Union, and several other countries. These lethal devices can be used as possible components in a weapon to be used in a terrorist asymmetric strike. Radio-thermal generators, RTGs, used by the Soviets to power navigational beacons and communications equipment in remote areas, each containing up to 40,000 curies of highly radioactive strontium or cesium.



Even a tiny fraction of a single curie of strontium has a high probability of causing a fatal cancer. These two materials, which cannot be used to make nuclear weapons, can be combined with conventional explosives to build a dirty bomb or radiological bomb.



There are literally hundred of places, and countries, where terrorists use and have access to materials for such a bomb, including dumping grounds for medical waste. In some RTGs, the device's core typically is a flash light-size capsule of strontium 90, surrounded by thick lead to absorb the radiation. If broken, it radiates fatal doses of radiation.





Of the countless scenarios of terrorist mayhem, none quickens the pulse quite like the menace of a nuclear bomb, and for good reason. A nuclear weapon embodies essentially everything a terrorist could hope for: the ability to kill at least tens of thousands of people at once, a fiery explosion that reverberates globally in images of death and destruction, and a lingering, lethal legacy, in the form of radioactive fallout.



Fortunately, most groups and terrorist nations are limited in their resources and lack the infrastructure to build a nuclear bomb. But, why build a bomb when there are far cheaper and simpler ways of waging nuclear terror?



There are two other possibilities that, for their comparative simplicity, would deliver much of the bang of a bomb. Flying a fully fueled jumbo jet into a nuclear reactor is one. The other is using radioactive nuclear materials to kill or sicken people or render tracts of land uninhabitable by, for example, scattering the materials with a conventional explosion.



Nuclear reactors are surrounded by a massive containment structure with concrete-and-steel walls more than a meter thick. These containments were designed to withstand earthquakes and extremely violent impacts, but not the sort a plunging jumbo jet would cause if fully loaded with fuel, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in Vienna , Austria .



In a 26 September, 2004 release, the agency suggested that such an impact would not trigger a runaway nuclear reaction, because automatic safety systems would flood the reactor with water. A direct hit by a large, fueled aircraft might nevertheless breach the containment and damage the reactor, possibly causing a leak of radioactive steam and fallout.



The IAEA’s assessment predicts that the worst damage would be confined within 10 Kms. of the plant. Even so, dangerous levels of radioactivity would likely persist for 10 to 15 years.



Radiological dispersion devices-the poor man’s nuclear weapon-, or dirty bomb, are another possibility likely to attract increasing interest from terrorists. Scattering radiation without a nuclear explosion, they are a near-term terrorist threat. Several nations-including a few sponsors of terrorism-have dabbled in dispersion devices. In the 1980s, Iraq produced and tested conventional bombs filled with radioactive materials-apparently, spent fuel from its research reactors, according to a 1991 report by the CIA . Cuba , by the way, has two research reactors.



Spent fuel is the obvious choice for the radioactive material in a terrorist device. Many tens of thousands of tons of it lie scattered around the world, including small accumulations in Iraq , Iran , Algeria , Libya , Syria , Pakistan , North Korea , and Cuba .



A single, half-ton spent fuel assembly from a reactor contains more than enough radioactivity to put a transportation terminal or some other strategic location out of action for months, or years, if the radioactivity is well dispersed.



The most accessible nuclear device for any terrorist would be a radiological dispersion bomb. This so-called ‘dirty bomb’ would consist of waste by-products from nuclear reactors wrapped in conventional explosives, which upon detonation would spew deadly radioactive particles into the environment.



This is an expedient weapon, in that radioactive waste material is relatively easy to obtain. Radioactive waste is widely found throughout the world, and in general is not as well guarded as actual nuclear weapons. In the United States , radioactive waste is located at more than 70 commercial nuclear power sites in 31 states. Enormous quantities also exist overseas — in Europe and Japan in particular. Tons of wastes are transported long distances, including between continents ( Japan to Europe and back).



Cuba , since 1988 has two experimental nuclear reactors in La Habana. Very low power. One is a 10 Watts. The other is referred to as zero Watts . They are used for nuclear medicine and research on nuclear biotechnology. But they do generate nuclear waste.



In Russia, security for nuclear waste is especially poor, and the potential for diversion and actual use by Islamic radicals has been shown to be very real indeed. In 1996, Islamic rebels from the break-away province of Chechnya planted, but did not detonate, such a device in Moscow’s Izmailovo Park to demonstrate Russia’s vulnerability. This dirty bomb consisted of a deadly brew of dynamite and one of the highly radioactive by-products of nuclear fission — Cesium 137. Extreme versions of such gamma-ray emitting bombs, such as a dynamite-laden casket of spent fuel from a nuclear power plant, would not kill quite as many people as died on Sept. 11. Worst-case calculation for an explosion in downtown Manhattan during noontime: more than 2,000 deaths and many thousands more suffering from radiation poisoning. Treatment of those exposed would be greatly hampered by inadequate medical facilities and training. The United States has only a single hospital emergency room dedicated to treating patients exposed to radiation hazards, at Oak Ridge, Tenn. A credible threat to explode such a bomb in a U.S. city could have a powerful impact on the conduct of U.S. foreign and military policy, and could possibly have a paralyzing effect. Not only would the potential loss of life be considerable, but also the prospect of mass evacuation of dense urban centers would loom large in the minds of policy-makers.


The threat from radiological dispersion dims in comparison to the possibility that terrorists could build or obtain an actual atomic bomb. An explosion of even low yield could kill hundreds of thousands of people. A relatively small bomb, say 15-kilotons, detonated in Manhattan could immediately kill upwards of 100,000 inhabitants, followed by a comparable number of deaths in the lingering aftermath. Fortunately, bomb-grade nuclear fissile material (highly enriched uranium or plutonium) is relatively heavily guarded in most, if not all, nuclear weapon states. Nonetheless, the possibility of diversion remains. Massive quantities of fissile material exist around the world. Sophisticated terrorists could fairly readily design and fabricate a workable atomic bomb once they manage to acquire the precious deadly ingredients (the Hiroshima bomb which used a simple gun-barrel design is the prime example).


Obviously, intelligence that helps localize the bomb is the main key to success. Just as obviously, intelligence of such quality is seldom available — as proven on Sept. 11. Such a search could be truly looking for a needle in a haystack, as detection normally would succeed only if the detectors come within a few feet or so of the hidden bomb. Disabling a bomb is easy by comparison. A radiological bomb might be surrounded by a tent enclosure several tens of feet in height and width, then filled with a special foam to contain the deadly radioactive material (such as Cesium 137) if the bomb explodes during further defusing attempts. For a nuclear device there are available a set of options for disabling the weapon, including using explosives to wreck the bomb’s wiring to prevent the triggering of the nuclear detonators. Because of the difficulty inherent in finding a nuclear weapon once it entered the country, near-term U.S. response efforts would be best focused on prevention and intervention to secure possible sources of nuclear terrorism.
A state sponsor of terrorism would simply give the spent fuel or perhaps even an entire dispersion device to terrorist groups. We must be on the alert, and start thinking from the terrorist’s perspective of maximizing the destruction.


6. Infiltration of agents through the US borders


Since the 1990s, Cuba has become the main center to infiltrate agents , Cubans and no Cubans, through the US borders. The Cuban government has created a network to carefully conduct the illegal entrance of people in the United States, some for dollars, and some to form intelligence networks to spy against the United States.


CONCLUSION:


Yes, Cuba is a very active and powerful threat against the security of the United States, Latin America, and Europe