Carter (1979), Obama (2011) and Cuba Policy

at 9:22 AM Wednesday, August 10, 2011

The latest theory by (and hope of) anti-sanctions advocates is that the identity (and political cohesion) of the Cuban "exile" community is being dismembered by the sheer number of Cuban-Americans traveling to the island.

Thus, they've ingeniously concluded that opposition to President Obama's Cuba policy doesn't stem from the financial bailout it's providing the brutal (and bankrupt) Castro regime -- but from political resistance to such "change."

(These theorists have no actual experience in Cuban-American politics and instead seem to be deriving their political wisdom from a recent speech by dictator Raul Castro.)

So let's look at the facts.

In 1978, President Jimmy Carter authorized unlimited travel to Cuba.

Similar to President Obama, Carter favored a conciliatory approach to dealing with the Castro regime and sought greater "people-to-people" contacts.

The following year (1979), over 125,000 Cuban-Americans traveled to the island. At that time, there were approximately 450,000 Cubans in the U.S.

That's more than a one-in-four ratio.

Today (2011), there are nearly 2 million Cuban-Americans, including offspring. And according to the Castro regime, there were 350,000 trips by Cuban-Americans to the island.

Even without getting into how many of these (the majority) are repeat travelers (visits vs. visitors) -- that's less than a one-in-four ratio.

Thus, based on this theory -- the "exile" community is actually more "hardline" today than in 1979.

Another similarity is that 1979 and 2011 were both pre-election years.

So surely -- based on this theory -- Cuban-Americans must have strongly supported President Carter vs. the hardline approach being advocated by then-Governor Ronald Reagan.

Not even close.

Then came the Mariel boatlift, which led similar theorists of the time, including The Miami Herald's former editor Tom Fiedler, to predict in 1985:

"There has been a generational change among Cuban voters."

So how many Cuban-Americans in favor of lifting sanctions have been elected by the community since then (or ever)?

None.

And just last year -- what percentage of the Cuban-American vote did President Obama's candidate garner in Florida's 25th Congressional District?

Less than 18%.

Any more theories?